Mortgage rates change every day, but most people don’t understand why… Or what it actually means for them. This page (updated weekly) is designed to simplify everything. In this video, you’ll learn:

1. How to track mortgage rate trends
2. What’s happening in the bond market
3. The simple “teeter-totter” relationship between mortgage bonds and rates
4. What’s driving rate movement (inflation, economic data, market reactions)

Whether you're:

1. A homebuyer (first-time or moving up)
2. A Realtor or builder advising clients
3. A real estate investor

This resource helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions. You’ll also find:

1. Local Nashville market data
2. National housing trends
3. Weekly outlooks on where rates may be heading next

Bookmark this page and check back weekly to stay informed.

1. Go to: www.michaelthayer.com
2. Scroll down to "Weekly Market & Rate Update"
3. Save the link to check back for the weekly updates.

Have questions or want a breakdown for your local market? Reach out, I am happy to help.

Why Rates Move Daily:

Alright, before we get into this, let me be very clear: if anyone is telling you mortgage rates move for some random reason or pointing to anything other than what I’m about to explain, they’re wrong, you’re talking to the wrong person. Mortgage rates are driven by two core factors: inflation and the economic data that impacts it, and more specifically, how those factors influence the way mortgage bonds trade on Wall Street. That’s what ultimately drives the rates you and I see every day, and it really is that simple. Some people point to the 10-year Treasury as an indicator, and while it can be helpful, it doesn’t always tell the full story and can be misleading at times. Most people can’t explain this clearly, and that’s why this exists: to break it down simply so you finally have clarity. It can feel confusing because it’s counterintuitive, but once you understand that it works in the opposite way you might expect, it becomes much easier. Think of it like a teeter-totter: when one side goes up, the other side comes down, and that’s exactly how mortgage bonds and mortgage rates behave. What you’re looking at in a bond chart is daily movements shown as candlesticks; each bar represents one full day of trading. Green is good, meaning bonds improved and rates typically move lower; red is bad, meaning bonds declined and rates move higher. Now tie that back to the teeter-totter. When bond yields improve, rates get better; when bond yields decline, rates get worse. The biggest factor influencing all of this is inflation, because inflation erodes the value of bonds over time. When inflation rises or is expected to rise, bonds struggle, and when bonds struggle, mortgage rates increase. When inflation cools, bonds improve, and rates can move lower. So if you’re watching one thing, watch inflation; it’s the key driver. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expect rates to rise; if it cools, rates can improve. The good news is you don’t have to figure this out on your own. I break this down and update it every week, so you can understand the trend, see what’s happening, and make better decisions. Most people fear what they don’t understand, and that costs them money, but when you have clarity, you make stronger, more confident decisions. Use this as your resource, come back to it, and if you have questions, reach out. I’m here to help make sense of it all.