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Weekly Market & Rate Update on 6-23-26
Weekly Market & Mortgage Rate Update on 6-23-26
Inflation Concerns Return To Center Stage
Mortgage rates are moving mostly sideways this week, but volatility returned after investors digested new comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and updated inflation projections from the Federal Reserve.
Alright, people... this week could get interesting.
Last week's optimism surrounding the Iran peace agreement helped oil prices move lower, and mortgage bonds rally.
But by Wednesday, markets shifted their attention back to inflation after the Fed meeting and Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Chairman.
While the Fed left rates unchanged, Warsh made it clear that returning inflation to the Fed's 2% target remains the top priority. The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts, prompting concern that rates may remain higher for longer than investors had hoped.
What Happened Last Week?
The biggest market-moving event came from the Federal Reserve.
➡️ The Fed left rates unchanged
➡️ Inflation forecasts were revised higher
➡️ Markets reduced expectations for future rate cuts
➡️ Mortgage bonds pulled back after Wednesday's meeting
The good news is that oil prices continue to trend lower and peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remain intact, helping prevent an even larger sell-off.
What We're Watching This Week
This week's biggest events include:
➡️ ADP Employment Report
➡️ New Home Sales
➡️ Mortgage Applications
➡️ PCE Inflation Report
➡️ GDP (Final Reading)
➡️ Jobless Claims
Of all the reports this week, the PCE Inflation Report will likely have the biggest impact on mortgage rates.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and after last week's hawkish tone, investors will be watching closely for signs of cooling inflation.
Housing Market Snapshot
Housing continues to show resilience despite affordability challenges.
Recent housing reports have shown that inventory is improving, buyer activity is remaining steady, and builders are slowing new construction starts.
If rates eventually move lower, that combination could create a favorable environment for both buyers and sellers heading into the second half of the year.
Bottom Line
The market spent most of last week celebrating lower oil prices and improving geopolitical news.
Then the Fed reminded everyone that inflation is still the main battle.
Mortgage bonds remain in a relatively stable range, but investors are now looking for confirmation that inflation is moving lower before pushing rates meaningfully lower.
The market's attitude right now seems to be:
"We like the peace deal... but we'd really like lower inflation." haha
Sometimes you just have to laugh a little and roll with the market.
Have a great week!
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 6-23-26
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Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 6-23-26
Watch the Trend, Not the Headline Rate
Below you’ll find the National Average Mortgage Rates as published for industry reference. These rates are for illustration only and reflect recently closed loans, not current market rates. Use this only for a general trend indicator. Your actual rate will depend on your financial profile and local market conditions, which is why getting pre-approved before you start shopping is key.
National Rate Averages
30-Yr Fixed
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
15-Yr Fixed
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
30-Yr Jumbo
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
30-Yr FHA
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
Historical Trend
Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI). Indices reflect aggregate rate lock data. Learn more.
See What’s Happening: Locally & Nationally
The market moves fast. These two updates give you the clarity to stay ahead, so you can make confident, well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting.
MISSED A PREVIOUS WEEK'S UPDATE? CATCH UP HERE:
- Weekly Market & Rate Update on 6-16-26
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- Weekly Market & Rate Update on 6-2-26
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Video Transcripts
+ −Mortgage rates change every day, but most people don’t understand why… Or what it actually means for them. This page (updated weekly) is designed to simplify everything. In this video, you’ll learn:
- How to track mortgage rate trends
- What’s happening in the bond market
- The simple “teeter-totter” relationship between mortgage bonds and rates
- What’s driving rate movement (inflation, economic data, market reactions)
Whether you're:
- A homebuyer (first-time or moving up)
- A Realtor or builder advising clients
- A real estate investor
This resource helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions. You’ll also find:
- Local Nashville market data
- National housing trends
- Weekly outlooks on where rates may be heading next
Bookmark this page and check back weekly to stay informed.
- Go to: www.michaelthayer.com
- Scroll down to "Weekly Market & Rate Update"
- Save the link to check back for the weekly updates.
Have questions or want a breakdown for your local market? Reach out, I am happy to help.
Why Rates Move Daily:
Alright, before we get into this, let me be very clear: if anyone is telling you mortgage rates move for some random reason or pointing to anything other than what I’m about to explain, they’re wrong, you’re talking to the wrong person. Mortgage rates are driven by two core factors: inflation and the economic data that impacts it, and more specifically, how those factors influence the way mortgage bonds trade on Wall Street. That’s what ultimately drives the rates you and I see every day, and it really is that simple. Some people point to the 10-year Treasury as an indicator, and while it can be helpful, it doesn’t always tell the full story and can be misleading at times. Most people can’t explain this clearly, and that’s why this exists: to break it down simply so you finally have clarity. It can feel confusing because it’s counterintuitive, but once you understand that it works in the opposite way you might expect, it becomes much easier. Think of it like a teeter-totter: when one side goes up, the other side comes down, and that’s exactly how mortgage bonds and mortgage rates behave. What you’re looking at in a bond chart is daily movements shown as candlesticks; each bar represents one full day of trading. Green is good, meaning bonds improved and rates typically move lower; red is bad, meaning bonds declined and rates move higher. Now tie that back to the teeter-totter. When bond yields improve, rates get better; when bond yields decline, rates get worse. The biggest factor influencing all of this is inflation, because inflation erodes the value of bonds over time. When inflation rises or is expected to rise, bonds struggle, and when bonds struggle, mortgage rates increase. When inflation cools, bonds improve, and rates can move lower. So if you’re watching one thing, watch inflation; it’s the key driver. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expect rates to rise; if it cools, rates can improve. The good news is you don’t have to figure this out on your own. I break this down and update it every week, so you can understand the trend, see what’s happening, and make better decisions. Most people fear what they don’t understand, and that costs them money, but when you have clarity, you make stronger, more confident decisions. Use this as your resource, come back to it, and if you have questions, reach out. I’m here to help make sense of it all.