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Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update – July 22, 2026
Oil, Tariffs, and Fed Talk Push Mortgage Rates Higher
Updated July 22, 2026
Mortgage rates are moving higher this week as rising oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, and more hawkish Federal Reserve comments pushed investors out of mortgage bonds.
Alright, people...
For a brief moment, markets thought tensions with Iran might cool down.
A proposed 10-day ceasefire helped oil prices dip below $82 per barrel earlier in the week. Despite the disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, more oil was still moving through the region than many investors initially believed.
That optimism did not last long.
Oil moved above $87 per barrel as tensions escalated again, shipping disruptions expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and peace talks appeared to lose momentum.
At the same time, new tariff announcements created another inflation concern. Markets are worried that higher costs from oil and imported goods could eventually work their way into consumer prices.
The Fed Is Adding to the Pressure
Several Fed officials continue to argue that inflation remains too high and that another rate hike may be necessary.
The Fed cannot produce more oil, reopen shipping lanes, or lower grocery prices. But investors are concerned it could still raise interest rates in an attempt to prevent higher costs from spreading throughout the economy.
That possibility helped push the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.67% and caused mortgage bonds to break below an important support level.
In plain English: the market is worried inflation could heat back up, and mortgage rates are paying the price.
What Happened This Week?
➡️ A possible ceasefire briefly lowered oil prices and calmed the markets.
➡️ Renewed fighting and shipping concerns later pushed oil above $87 per barrel.
➡️ Hawkish Fed comments increased speculation about another rate hike.
➡️ New tariffs added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.
➡️ Mortgage bonds broke below support near 99.49 and moved toward the next floor near 99.21.
➡️ The 10-year Treasury yield climbed close to 4.67%, adding pressure to mortgage pricing.
Housing and Mortgage Snapshot
Mortgage application data showed the average quoted rate rose to approximately 6.69%, its highest level since last August. Even so, that was still around 0.15% lower than the same time last year.
Purchase applications increased 6% for the week and were approximately flat compared with one year ago. Refinance applications fell 2% for the week, but remained 7% higher year over year.
Pending home sales fell 5.4% last month, reflecting the impact of higher borrowing costs on buyers who were shopping during May and June.
Housing construction jumped nearly 20%, but most of that increase came from multifamily properties. Building permits, which provide a better look at future construction, fell to their lowest level since August 2025.
Meanwhile, the ICE Home Price Index showed national home values rose 0.26% during July and were 1.7% higher than one year ago. Home-price growth has slowed, but limited housing supply continues to support values.
Mortgage Bond Market
Mortgage bonds spent much of the past several weeks trading between resistance near 99.99 and support near 99.49.
That lower support level has now been broken.
Mortgage bonds were trading near 99.31, leaving the next meaningful support area around 99.21. The 10-year Treasury yield was also approaching resistance near 4.67%.
These are important levels. If mortgage bonds stabilize and the 10-year yield remains below 4.67%, rates could settle down. But another jump in oil prices, tariffs, or hawkish Fed comments could create additional pressure.
Bottom Line
The cooler inflation reports from last week gave the market some hope, but this week provided a reminder that inflation data is only part of the story.
Oil prices are rising, tariffs are creating new uncertainty, and some Fed officials are openly discussing another rate hike.
Until those concerns ease, mortgage rates may remain volatile and could continue moving higher in the near term.
Last week, the market worried about Iran and the Fed. This week, oil and tariffs decided they wanted some attention too.
Have a great week!
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 7-22-26
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Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 7-22-26
Watch the Trend, Not the Headline Rate
Below you’ll find the National Average Mortgage Rates as published for industry reference. These rates are for illustration only and reflect recently closed loans, not current market rates. Use this only for a general trend indicator. Your actual rate will depend on your financial profile and local market conditions, which is why getting pre-approved before you start shopping is key.
National Rate Averages
30-Yr Fixed
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
15-Yr Fixed
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
30-Yr Jumbo
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
30-Yr FHA
%
↑
↓
→ 0.000
Historical Trend
Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI). Indices reflect aggregate rate lock data. Learn more.
See What’s Happening: Locally & Nationally
The market moves fast. These two updates give you the clarity to stay ahead, so you can make confident, well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting.
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Video Transcripts
+ −Mortgage rates change every day, but most people don’t understand why… Or what it actually means for them. This page (updated weekly) is designed to simplify everything. In this video, you’ll learn:
- How to track mortgage rate trends
- What’s happening in the bond market
- The simple “teeter-totter” relationship between mortgage bonds and rates
- What’s driving rate movement (inflation, economic data, market reactions)
Whether you're:
- A homebuyer (first-time or moving up)
- A Realtor or builder advising clients
- A real estate investor
This resource helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions. You’ll also find:
- Local Nashville market data
- National housing trends
- Weekly outlooks on where rates may be heading next
Bookmark this page and check back weekly to stay informed.
- Go to: www.michaelthayer.com
- Scroll down to "Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update"
- Save the link to check back for the weekly updates.
Have questions or want a breakdown for your local market? Reach out; I am happy to help.
Why Rates Move Daily:
Alright, before we get into this, let me be very clear: if anyone is telling you mortgage rates move for some random reason or pointing to anything other than what I’m about to explain, they’re wrong; you’re talking to the wrong person. Mortgage rates are driven by two core factors: inflation and the economic data that impacts it, and more specifically, how those factors influence the way mortgage bonds trade on Wall Street. That’s what ultimately drives the rates you and I see every day, and it really is that simple. Some people point to the 10-year Treasury as an indicator, and while it can be helpful, it doesn’t always tell the full story and can be misleading at times. Most people can’t explain this clearly, and that’s why this exists: to break it down simply so you finally have clarity. It can feel confusing because it’s counterintuitive, but once you understand that it works in the opposite way you might expect, it becomes much easier. Think of it like a teeter-totter: when one side goes up, the other side comes down, and that’s exactly how mortgage bonds and mortgage rates behave. What you’re looking at in a bond chart is daily movements shown as candlesticks; each bar represents one full day of trading. Green is good, meaning bonds improved and rates typically move lower; red is bad, meaning bonds declined and rates move higher. Now tie that back to the teeter-totter. When bond yields improve, rates get better; when bond yields decline, rates get worse. The biggest factor influencing all of this is inflation, because inflation erodes the value of bonds over time. When inflation rises or is expected to rise, bonds struggle, and when bonds struggle, mortgage rates increase. When inflation cools, bonds improve, and rates can move lower. So if you’re watching one thing, watch inflation; it’s the key driver. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expect rates to rise; if it cools, rates can improve. The good news is you don’t have to figure this out on your own. I break this down and update it every week, so you can understand the trend, see what’s happening, and make better decisions. Most people fear what they don’t understand, and that costs them money, but when you have clarity, you make stronger, more confident decisions. Use this as your resource, come back to it, and if you have questions, reach out. I’m here to help make sense of it all.