Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update – September 28, 2026
Mortgage Rates Moved Higher as Treasury Yields Hit New Highs
Updated September 28, 2026
What Is the Market Doing?
Mortgage rates moved higher last week, and rates are pointing higher again Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.22%, while mortgage bonds fell back to the 100.70 floor. This week's inflation and jobs reports could decide whether rates keep rising or get some relief.
Want to understand why the market is moving this way? Here's a closer look.
Why did mortgage rates move higher?
The Mortgage Bankers Association's September 23 weekly survey showed the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed conforming loan rose from 6.97% to 7.12%. The survey covered the week ending September 18. This is a national survey average, not a personal rate quote.
The Federal Reserve raised its short-term rate by 0.25 percentage point on September 16. Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed one-for-one. Still, strong business reports, talk of another Fed hike, and a weak Treasury auction led investors to sell bonds last week. When bond prices fall, mortgage rates usually rise.
Oil and world events added more stress. Oil moved higher again Monday after the United States rejected Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices can raise fuel and shipping costs, making inflation harder to cool.
Why can mortgage rates stay high when Treasury yields calm down?
Mortgage rates often follow the general direction of the 10-year Treasury yield, but the two do not move in perfect step. The gap between them is called the mortgage spread.
That gap can grow when the bond market becomes jumpy. Lenders may build in more room for risk, which can keep mortgage rates higher even if Treasury yields improve a little. The MOVE Index, a measure of bond-market swings, was near 104 in Monday's market report. That signals uncertainty remains high.
What do the bond charts tell us?
At Monday's chart snapshot, mortgage bonds were at 100.74, only 4 basis points above the 100.70 floor. This tested the floor, not a confirmed hold, because trading was still open. The first ceilings are 101.38 and 101.71.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.2298% after reaching 5.2719% during the day. That means the yield had moved above the first 5.222% ceiling during trading. The next ceiling is 5.29%. Moving back below 5.222% would be the first sign of relief.
- If mortgage bonds hold 100.70, rate conditions may begin to settle.
- If mortgage bonds break below 100.70, about 84 basis points of room remain before the next major floor.
- If the 10-year yield stays above 5.222%, it may test 5.29% and keep mortgage rates moving higher.
These are levels to watch, not promises about where rates will go.
What could move rates this week?
Tuesday brings home-price reports, Consumer Confidence, and the JOLTS report on job openings. JOLTS can show whether the job market is strengthening or weakening.
Wednesday is the biggest inflation day. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report, also called PCE, is the Fed's favorite inflation measure. BEA will also report personal income, spending, and updated GDP data. ADP employment and mortgage application reports are also due.
Thursday brings jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing report. Friday brings the September jobs report, including job growth, wages, and unemployment. Hotter inflation or jobs reports could push rates higher. A cooler report could help bonds and rates.
What does this mean for you?
For buyers, higher rates can raise payments or narrow the price range that fits the budget. For sellers, fewer buyers may qualify, so the price and any seller credits matter more. Homeowners looking at a refinance should compare the full cost and payment, not the rate alone. Real estate professionals should prepare clients for fast market changes around this week's reports.
Bottom line
Mortgage rates moved higher, and Monday's charts did not yet show clear relief. Holding 100.70 in mortgage bonds and moving the 10-year yield back below 5.222% would be the first helpful signs. A break below the bond floor or a Treasury move toward 5.29% could push mortgage rates higher.
If you are wondering what these market changes mean for your plans, call or message me. I will explain what matters without all the confusing market talk.
This is a general market update, not a personal rate quote. Actual rates, costs, and eligibility depend on the borrower, property, loan program, points or credits, lock period, market conditions, and timing.
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 9-28-26
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 9-28-26
10 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds: Updated on 9-28-26
10 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds: Updated on 9-28-26
Watch the Trend, Not the Headline Rate
Below you’ll find the National Average Mortgage Rates as published for industry reference. These rates are for illustration only and reflect recently closed loans, not current market rates. Use this only for a general trend indicator. Your actual rate will depend on your financial profile and local market conditions, which is why getting pre-approved before you start shopping is key.
National Rate Averages
Historical Trend
Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI). Indices reflect aggregate rate lock data. Learn more.
See What’s Happening: Locally & Nationally
The market moves fast. These two updates give you the clarity to stay ahead, so you can make confident, well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting.
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Video Transcripts
+ −Mortgage rates change every day, but most people don’t understand why… Or what it actually means for them. This page (updated weekly) is designed to simplify everything. In this video, you’ll learn:
- How to track mortgage rate trends
- What’s happening in the bond market
- The simple “teeter-totter” relationship between mortgage bonds and rates
- What’s driving rate movement (inflation, economic data, market reactions)
Whether you're:
- A homebuyer (first-time or moving up)
- A Realtor or builder advising clients
- A real estate investor
This resource helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions. You’ll also find:
- Local Nashville market data
- National housing trends
- Weekly outlooks on where rates may be heading next
Bookmark this page and check back weekly to stay informed.
- Go to: www.michaelthayer.com
- Scroll down to "Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update"
- Save the link to check back for the weekly updates.
Have questions or want a breakdown for your local market? Reach out; I am happy to help.
Why Rates Move Daily:
Alright, before we get into this, let me be very clear: if anyone is telling you mortgage rates move for some random reason or pointing to anything other than what I’m about to explain, they’re wrong; you’re talking to the wrong person. Mortgage rates are driven by two core factors: inflation and the economic data that impacts it, and more specifically, how those factors influence the way mortgage bonds trade on Wall Street. That’s what ultimately drives the rates you and I see every day, and it really is that simple. Some people point to the 10-year Treasury as an indicator, and while it can be helpful, it doesn’t always tell the full story and can be misleading at times. Most people can’t explain this clearly, and that’s why this exists: to break it down simply so you finally have clarity. It can feel confusing because it’s counterintuitive, but once you understand that it works in the opposite way you might expect, it becomes much easier. Think of it like a teeter-totter: when one side goes up, the other side comes down, and that’s exactly how mortgage bonds and mortgage rates behave. What you’re looking at in a bond chart is daily movements shown as candlesticks; each bar represents one full day of trading. Green is good, meaning bonds improved and rates typically move lower; red is bad, meaning bonds declined and rates move higher. Now tie that back to the teeter-totter. When bond yields improve, rates get better; when bond yields decline, rates get worse. The biggest factor influencing all of this is inflation, because inflation erodes the value of bonds over time. When inflation rises or is expected to rise, bonds struggle, and when bonds struggle, mortgage rates increase. When inflation cools, bonds improve, and rates can move lower. So if you’re watching one thing, watch inflation; it’s the key driver. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expect rates to rise; if it cools, rates can improve. The good news is you don’t have to figure this out on your own. I break this down and update it every week, so you can understand the trend, see what’s happening, and make better decisions. Most people fear what they don’t understand, and that costs them money, but when you have clarity, you make stronger, more confident decisions. Use this as your resource, come back to it, and if you have questions, reach out. I’m here to help make sense of it all.
Additional Information & Reference Guides
+ −Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26 Image Overview
+ −What this image communicates
A reader encountering “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” should immediately recognize the dated mortgage-market evidence question inside “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.” The visual's role is primary visual message, so it must make one topic recognizable at a glance and give the reader a clear entry point into the deeper explanation on the page rather than merely repeat the headline. The image makes “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” the dominant visual message and gives the reader a defined entry point into the page's argument. The wording identifies what deserves attention first; the surrounding design establishes whether the reader is looking at a claim, a choice, a sequence, or a practical resource. That distinction determines what evidence should be gathered before the message is applied.
Why it belongs on this page
The August 17 market update reports relief after cooler inflation and weaker retail sales, followed by renewed pressure as oil climbed near $83 amid conflict and shipping disruption. The bond chart highlights support near 101.39, a smaller hurdle near 101.43, and a more important ceiling near 101.72. Those levels describe the chart at that update; they are not borrower pricing or permanent floors and ceilings. The primary visual message role of “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” is the reason this image belongs at this point in “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.”
How a reader can use it
Use “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” for its stated primary visual message job on “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.” Identify the claim, chart, comparison, process, property feature, or strategy shown and connect it to the exact decision the page addresses. The working notes for this panel should record the literal claim or comparison shown, the page fact it supports, the source behind that fact, and the decision the reader should make next. That record lets the reader separate a market explanation from the rate and costs available to one borrower for one property without asking this image to answer a different stage of the decision.
What still must be verified
Keep the visual in its proper role. A dated market image cannot guarantee a future rate, reproduce a Loan Estimate, or show the pricing adjustments attached to a particular credit, occupancy, property, loan amount, or lock period. If a later disclosure, source update, appraisal, inspection, title item, program rule, or contract term conflicts with “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26,” the current controlling evidence takes priority. On “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update,” that safeguard applies specifically to the primary visual message role assigned to “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26.”