Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update – November 2, 2026
Mortgage Rates Moved Lower. The Jobs Report Could Move Them Again.
Updated November 2, 2026
What Is the Market Doing?
Mortgage rates moved lower in Freddie Mac’s latest national survey. The average 30-year fixed rate fell from 7.32% to 7.24%. The average 15-year fixed rate fell from 6.68% to 6.60%.
Newer bond data also improved. Mortgage bonds were higher than a week ago, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell from about 4.99% to 4.91%. Both moves can help mortgage rates.
Why Did Mortgage Rates Move Lower?
Investors became more worried about the stock market after several large technology companies reported disappointing earnings or heavy spending.
When investors become nervous about stocks, they often move money into safer investments such as Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds. That extra buying can push bond prices higher and Treasury yields lower.
Mortgage bonds and mortgage rates usually move in opposite directions. When mortgage bonds rise, mortgage rates may improve. When mortgage bonds fall, rates may face pressure.
What Did the Fed and Inflation Reports Say?
The Federal Reserve held its short-term rate steady on October 28. However, two Fed members wanted a small rate increase. This shows that inflation is still a concern.
The latest inflation report showed that prices are still rising too quickly. Overall prices were up 3.6% from one year ago. Prices excluding food and energy were up 3.1%.
These readings moved higher from August. That may limit how much room the Fed has to help rates.
What Could Help or Hurt Rates?
Lower oil prices could help because energy costs affect inflation. More weakness in the stock market could also send investors toward bonds, which may help mortgage rates.
The main risk this week is a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Strong hiring or faster wage growth could increase inflation concerns and push Treasury yields higher.
A weaker jobs report could help bonds and allow the recent improvement in mortgage rates to continue.
What Economic Reports Are We Watching?
Tuesday brings the JOLTS report on job openings and the Factory Orders report.
Wednesday brings the ADP private employment report and the ISM Services report.
Thursday brings planned job cuts, jobless claims, worker productivity, and labor costs.
Friday brings the government’s monthly jobs report. It includes job growth, unemployment, hours worked, and wage growth. This report could create the largest market move of the week.
What Do the Bond Charts Tell Us?
Mortgage bonds were at 101.63 on Monday, compared with 101.38 one week earlier. Bonds finished last week above the 101.38 floor and remained above it when Monday’s chart was taken.
The first ceiling is near 101.75. If bonds move through that ceiling, the next ceiling is near 102.06. If bonds fall below 101.38, the next floor is near 100.98.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell from about 4.99% last Monday to 4.91% this Monday. It was sitting just below the important 4.916% chart line when Monday’s picture was taken.
If the yield stays below that line, the next lower floor is near 4.79%. If it moves back above the line, the first ceiling is near 5.00%.
A floor is a place where a decline may stop. A ceiling is a level the market must move through before the improvement may continue. These are levels to watch, not promises about what will happen.
What Does This Mean for You?
Buyers should compare the full monthly payment, cash needed, and loan options instead of focusing only on one advertised rate.
Sellers may need to price carefully or consider a useful credit when buyers are sensitive to monthly payments.
Homeowners should compare the full costs and savings before deciding whether refinancing makes sense.
Real estate professionals should prepare clients for quick market changes around Friday’s jobs report.
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 11-2-26
Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 11-2-26
10 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds: Updated on 11-2-26
10 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds: Updated on 11-2-26
Watch the Trend, Not the Headline Rate
Below you’ll find the National Average Mortgage Rates as published for industry reference. These rates are for illustration only and reflect recently closed loans, not current market rates. Use this only for a general trend indicator. Your actual rate will depend on your financial profile and local market conditions, which is why getting pre-approved before you start shopping is key.
National Rate Averages
Historical Trend
Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI). Indices reflect aggregate rate lock data. Learn more.
See What’s Happening: Locally & Nationally
The market moves fast. These two updates give you the clarity to stay ahead, so you can make confident, well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting.
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Video Transcripts
+ −Mortgage rates change every day, but most people don’t understand why… Or what it actually means for them. This page (updated weekly) is designed to simplify everything. In this video, you’ll learn:
- How to track mortgage rate trends
- What’s happening in the bond market
- The simple “teeter-totter” relationship between mortgage bonds and rates
- What’s driving rate movement (inflation, economic data, market reactions)
Whether you're:
- A homebuyer (first-time or moving up)
- A Realtor or builder advising clients
- A real estate investor
This resource helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions. You’ll also find:
- Local Nashville market data
- National housing trends
- Weekly outlooks on where rates may be heading next
Bookmark this page and check back weekly to stay informed.
- Go to: www.michaelthayer.com
- Scroll down to "Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update"
- Save the link to check back for the weekly updates.
Have questions or want a breakdown for your local market? Reach out; I am happy to help.
Why Rates Move Daily:
Alright, before we get into this, let me be very clear: if anyone is telling you mortgage rates move for some random reason or pointing to anything other than what I’m about to explain, they’re wrong; you’re talking to the wrong person. Mortgage rates are driven by two core factors: inflation and the economic data that impacts it, and more specifically, how those factors influence the way mortgage bonds trade on Wall Street. That’s what ultimately drives the rates you and I see every day, and it really is that simple. Some people point to the 10-year Treasury as an indicator, and while it can be helpful, it doesn’t always tell the full story and can be misleading at times. Most people can’t explain this clearly, and that’s why this exists: to break it down simply so you finally have clarity. It can feel confusing because it’s counterintuitive, but once you understand that it works in the opposite way you might expect, it becomes much easier. Think of it like a teeter-totter: when one side goes up, the other side comes down, and that’s exactly how mortgage bonds and mortgage rates behave. What you’re looking at in a bond chart is daily movements shown as candlesticks; each bar represents one full day of trading. Green is good, meaning bonds improved and rates typically move lower; red is bad, meaning bonds declined and rates move higher. Now tie that back to the teeter-totter. When bond yields improve, rates get better; when bond yields decline, rates get worse. The biggest factor influencing all of this is inflation, because inflation erodes the value of bonds over time. When inflation rises or is expected to rise, bonds struggle, and when bonds struggle, mortgage rates increase. When inflation cools, bonds improve, and rates can move lower. So if you’re watching one thing, watch inflation; it’s the key driver. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expect rates to rise; if it cools, rates can improve. The good news is you don’t have to figure this out on your own. I break this down and update it every week, so you can understand the trend, see what’s happening, and make better decisions. Most people fear what they don’t understand, and that costs them money, but when you have clarity, you make stronger, more confident decisions. Use this as your resource, come back to it, and if you have questions, reach out. I’m here to help make sense of it all.
Additional Information & Reference Guides
+ −Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26 Image Overview
+ −What this image communicates
A reader encountering “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” should immediately recognize the dated mortgage-market evidence question inside “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.” The visual's role is primary visual message, so it must make one topic recognizable at a glance and give the reader a clear entry point into the deeper explanation on the page rather than merely repeat the headline. The image makes “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” the dominant visual message and gives the reader a defined entry point into the page's argument. The wording identifies what deserves attention first; the surrounding design establishes whether the reader is looking at a claim, a choice, a sequence, or a practical resource. That distinction determines what evidence should be gathered before the message is applied.
Why it belongs on this page
The August 17 market update reports relief after cooler inflation and weaker retail sales, followed by renewed pressure as oil climbed near $83 amid conflict and shipping disruption. The bond chart highlights support near 101.39, a smaller hurdle near 101.43, and a more important ceiling near 101.72. Those levels describe the chart at that update; they are not borrower pricing or permanent floors and ceilings. The primary visual message role of “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” is the reason this image belongs at this point in “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.”
How a reader can use it
Use “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26” for its stated primary visual message job on “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update.” Identify the claim, chart, comparison, process, property feature, or strategy shown and connect it to the exact decision the page addresses. The working notes for this panel should record the literal claim or comparison shown, the page fact it supports, the source behind that fact, and the decision the reader should make next. That record lets the reader separate a market explanation from the rate and costs available to one borrower for one property without asking this image to answer a different stage of the decision.
What still must be verified
Keep the visual in its proper role. A dated market image cannot guarantee a future rate, reproduce a Loan Estimate, or show the pricing adjustments attached to a particular credit, occupancy, property, loan amount, or lock period. If a later disclosure, source update, appraisal, inspection, title item, program rule, or contract term conflicts with “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26,” the current controlling evidence takes priority. On “Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update,” that safeguard applies specifically to the primary visual message role assigned to “Mortgage Bond Market: Updated on 8-17-26.”