Weekly Mortgage Market and Rate Update

Mortgage Rates Moved Lower for a Third Week. Inflation Is the Next Test.

Updated November 9, 2026

What Is the Market Doing?

Mortgage rates fell for the third straight week, while mortgage bonds and the 10-year Treasury remain slightly better than last Monday. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% one week earlier.

Mortgage bonds traded at 101.72 on Monday, up from 101.63 the prior week. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.8903%, down from 4.9145% one week earlier. That is a small improvement, but both charts are approaching important levels that could determine what happens next.

Want to understand why the market is moving this way? Here’s a closer look.

Why did mortgage rates move lower?

Investors became more concerned about technology stocks and companies borrowing heavily to build artificial intelligence data centers. When investors become worried about stocks, they often move money into safer investments such as Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds.

That buying can push bond prices higher and Treasury yields lower. This can help mortgage-rate conditions.

Mortgage bonds and mortgage rates usually move in opposite directions. When mortgage-bond prices rise, mortgage rates may move lower. When bond prices fall, rates may face upward pressure.

The bond market also held up better than expected after Friday’s strong jobs report. The economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above estimates of 60,000 to 65,000. Previous months were also revised higher. Strong job growth would normally push bond yields and mortgage rates higher, but investors remained focused on the stock-market selloff.

Why did some of that improvement fade?

The 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 4.8328% Monday morning before moving back to 4.8903%. Mortgage bonds also gave back part of their earlier improvement.

The strong jobs report reminded investors that the economy is still growing. It may give the Federal Reserve more room to keep rates higher or raise them again if inflation does not improve.

Initial jobless claims also remain very low. This means relatively few people are losing their jobs. That is good for workers, but it can keep the Fed focused on inflation.

This week’s inflation reports will now become the market’s biggest test. Hotter inflation could push bond yields and mortgage rates higher. Cooler inflation could help the recent improvement continue.

What does the bond chart tell us?

Mortgage bonds were at 101.72 on Monday. That placed them above the 101.60 floor but below the important 102.06 ceiling. Monday’s chart was taken during the day, so it does not show where bonds will finish.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.8903%. It was above the 4.81 floor but below the 4.916% ceiling.

1. If mortgage bonds hold above 101.60, they may have another chance to move toward the 102.06 ceiling.
2. Moving above 102.06 could open the door toward the next ceiling near 102.47.
3. Falling below 101.60 would put the lower floor near 101.38 back in view and could add pressure to mortgage rates.
4. If the 10-year yield moves below 4.81%, the next lower floor is near 4.60%.
5. If the 10-year yield moves above 4.916%, the next ceiling is near 5.02%. That could put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Think of a floor as a place where a drop may stop. A ceiling is a line the market must move through before the improvement can continue. These are levels to watch, not promises about what will happen.

What are we watching this week?

Tuesday is the most important day. The Consumer Price Index will show how much consumers paid in October. Inflation is one of the biggest forces affecting mortgage rates. Cooler inflation could help bonds and rates. Hotter inflation could quickly reverse the recent improvement.

Tuesday also brings ADP’s weekly employment estimate and a 10-year Treasury auction. Strong demand at the auction could help yields move lower. Weak demand could push yields higher.

The bond market will be closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.

Thursday brings jobless claims, existing-home sales, and a 30-year Treasury auction. Friday brings the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation faced by businesses.

What does this mean for you?

Buyers should compare the complete monthly payment, cash needed, and loan structure instead of focusing on one advertised rate.

Sellers should remember that buyers remain sensitive to payment changes. Careful pricing or a useful seller credit may help when appropriate.

Homeowners considering a refinance should compare the full cost, expected savings, and time needed to recover those costs.

Real estate professionals should prepare clients for possible market changes around Tuesday’s inflation report and Treasury auction.

Bottom line

Mortgage rates moved lower for the third straight week in Freddie Mac’s latest national survey. Mortgage bonds and the 10-year Treasury also remained slightly better than they were last Monday, even after a stronger-than-expected jobs report.

The improvement is not fully confirmed. Mortgage bonds need to hold above 101.60 and eventually move through 102.06. The 10-year Treasury yield needs to remain below 4.916% and move through the 4.81% floor before the next stage of improvement becomes possible.

If you are wondering what these market changes mean for your plans, call or message me. I will explain what matters without all the confusing market talk.

This is a general market update, not a personal rate quote. Freddie Mac’s 7.18% figure is the national weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the prior week. The average 15-year fixed rate fell from 6.60% to 6.57%. Actual rates, costs, and eligibility depend on the borrower, property, loan program, points or credits, lock period, market conditions, and timing.

Below you’ll find the National Average Mortgage Rates as published for industry reference. These rates are for illustration only and reflect recently closed loans, not current market rates. Use this only for a general trend indicator. Your actual rate will depend on your financial profile and local market conditions, which is why getting pre-approved before you start shopping is key.

The market moves fast. These two updates give you the clarity to stay ahead, so you can make confident, well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting.

If you have any questions or need more information about our affordable home financing solutions, please don’t hesitate to CONTACT ME. My team and I are here to help you every step of the way!

Ready to start your home journey? Click here to submit your loan application today!

Best regards,

Michael Thayer, CMPS, CMA

NMLS #173264

Planet Home Lending, NMLS #17022